Sustainable Marine Structures

A Validated Assessment of Off-Shore Wind Energy Potential in Southern Vietnam Using Bias-Corrected ERA5 Data

Huong Tran Thi Mai

Department of Oceanology, Meteorology and Hydrology, Faculty of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Faculty of Geology and Petroleum Engineering, University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Tien Thanh Nguyen

Department of Oceanology, Meteorology and Hydrology, Faculty of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Minh Thien Bui

Department of Oceanology, Meteorology and Hydrology, Faculty of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Truong An Dang

Department of Oceanology, Meteorology and Hydrology, Faculty of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/sms.v8i1.2774

Received: 05 September 2025 | Revised: 10 November 2025 | Accepted: 15 December 2025 | Published Online: 19 January 2026

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Abstract

Vietnam’s Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) identifies offshore wind power as a key pillar for carbon neutrality and long-term energy security. Realizing this potential requires accurate, high-resolution resource assessments to guide strategic planning and de-risk multi-billion-dollar investments. This study delivers the first scientifically validated, bias-corrected estimate of offshore wind energy potential in the strategic maritime region from Vung Tau to Ca Mau. Using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset (2011–2020), we apply a robust, monthly, component-wise regression method calibrated against long-term in-situ observations from two island stations. Raw, unvalidated ERA5 data are shown to grossly overestimate the resource, with mean annual Wind Power Density (WPD) inflated by more than 1.5–2.0 fold. After correction, data quality improves substantially: the overall Mean Bias Error (MBE) is reduced from 3.91 m/s to 0.38 m/s (by 90%), and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) drops by 75.0% (from 4.35 m/s to 1.09 m/s). The corrected dataset yields a realistic and conservative mean annual WPD at a 100-meter hub height of 90–290 W/m², compared with an unrealistic 140–460 W/m² from the raw data. These results provide a scientifically grounded baseline for Vietnam’s near-shore wind resource, clarify the limitations of using coastal-based observations to represent offshore conditions, and underscore the need for future offshore measurement campaigns to further reduce uncertainties and support the sustainable implementation of PDP8.

Keywords: Offshore Wind Energy; Bias Correction Validation; Wind Power Density; Renewable Energy Policy; Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8)

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