Sustainable Marine Structures

Risk Factor Identification and Validation for Desalination Projects in Egypt

Abanoub Shenouda

Department of Construction and Building Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Egyptian Chinese University, Cairo 11786, Egypt

Mona A. Hagras

Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt

Sayed Ismael

Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt

Hady Fayek

Energy and Renewable Energy Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Egyptian Chinese University, Cairo 11786, Egypt

A. Balah

Energy and Renewable Energy Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Egyptian Chinese University, Cairo 11786, Egypt

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/sms.v7i2.1834

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Abstract

Desalination of sea water projects are critical for addressing water scarcity in regions like Egypt, but they face numerous risks that can hinder their success. This study identifies and analyzes 53 risk factors affecting renewable energy desalination projects through expert interviews, literature review, and a questionnaire survey completed by 47 experts. Statistical methods, including descriptive statistics (mean, mode, standard error, and standard deviation), Pearson correlation, and Cronbach's alpha, were employed to validate the reliability and significance of these factors. The overall questionnaire showed excellent reliability (α = 0.815 for probability of occurrence; α = 0.921 for degree of impact). The results indicate a strong consensus among industry experts. Inflation and price fluctuations was ranked as the highest-probability risk (mean = 4.32/5), while faulty design of plant components (intake, outfall, mechanical systems) was ranked as the highest-impact risk (mean = 4.51/5). Conversely, environmental disasters (earthquakes, floods) showed the lowest probability of occurrence (mean = 1.91/5), and social pressures from entities not directly invested in the project’s success showed the lowest degree of impact (mean = 2.70/5). These statistically validated findings provide project stakeholders with critical insights into the most significant threats to desalination initiatives in Egypt's unique operational context. These findings provide a robust basis for understanding and managing risks in desalination projects, contributing to grow the knowledge on desalination project sustainability and offers actionable insights for stakeholders in Egypt and similar arid regions.

Keywords: Desalination Projects; Water-Energy Nexus; Risk Assessment; Risk Management; Risk Factors Identification; Statistical Analysis

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