Research on World Agricultural Economy

Estimating The Impact of Agricultural Investment and Food Price Volatility on Poverty Levels in Iraq

Noor Yousif Outhman

Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University of Anbar, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Arkan Mnawer Hamad

University Headquarters, University of Anbar, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Ammar Abdel Hadi Shallal

Department of Economics, College of Administration and Economics, University of Anbar, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Subhi A. Hammad

University Headquarters, University of Anbar, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Mustafa Fadel Hamad

Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University of Anbar, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Saad A. Hammad

Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University of Anbar, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Faisal Ghazi Faisal

Department of Finance and Banking, Al‑Idrisi University College, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

Thakir Hadi Abdullah

Ministry of Education, Ramadi 31001, Iraq

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i2.2810

Received: 5 October 2025 | Revised: 12 November 2025 | Accepted: 18 November 2025 | Published Online: 28 April 2026

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Abstract

The research aims to estimate the impact of food price volatility and agricultural investment on poverty levels in Iraq, using quarterly data from 2004 to 2022. The relationship between the variables was studied using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model methodology. The results showed the existence of a long-term cointegration between the dependent variable (poverty level Y) and the independent variables (agricultural investment X2) and the real global food price X1. As a result, the error correction coefficient was negative and statistically significant at the 5% significance level. The research concluded that food prices (X1) are positively associated with the degree of poverty in the long term and had a significant effect at the 1% probability level. In the long term, agricultural investment (X2) is negatively associated with the degree of poverty and has a significant effect at the 1% probability level. The study results also showed that the control variables have a statistically significant effect on the level of poverty in the long term. Inflation is positively associated with poverty, while the average per capita GDP and population growth are negatively associated with poverty, as poverty levels decrease with an increase in per capita income and population growth. The research concluded with a set of recommendations, the most important of which are the necessity to control food price volatility, enhance investments in the agricultural sector, and improve its infrastructure in order to reduce inflation by promoting macroeconomic stability.

Keywords: Agricultural Investment; Food Price Volatility; Poverty Alleviation; ARDL Model; Iraq Economy

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