Research on World Agricultural Economy

Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production: New Empirical Evidence at Province Level in Vietnam

Phuong M.H. Pham

Faculty of Finance and Banking, Academy of Policy and Development, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam

Tung D. Nguyen

Faculty of Finance and Banking, Academy of Policy and Development, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam

Huy Hung Ta

International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam

Hoang Viet Ha

University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam

Van‑Chung Dong

International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i1.2649

Received: 19 August 2025 | Revised: 4 October 2025 | Accepted: 10 October 2025 | Published Online: 13 February 2026

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Abstract

Climate change is a pressing issue that poses severe threats to the development of the agricultural sector worldwide. Vietnam's agricultural system, especially rice cultivation, is no exception. This study employs an Error-Correction Model (ECM) to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of climate change factors, namely temperature and rainfall, on rice production across all 63 Vietnamese provinces between 2010 and 2023. The empirical findings show that there is a long-term relationship between climate factors, rural population, and rice production. Specifically, temperature factor negatively affects rice yields in both summer-autumn and winter-spring seasons, while the negative effect of rainfall factor is observed for annual average rice and summer-autumn rice crops among provinces in Vietnam. The empirical findings also show that of the human capital factor strongly enhances  the provincial rice output in Vietnam. Moreover, the effects of climate change factors on rice production significantly vary across six regions in Vietnam. Building on these empirical findings, the paper provides several policy implications aimed at reducing the potential risks of climate change and contributing to the sustainable development of  not only Vietnam’s agriculture sector but also the nation’s economy.

Keywords: Climate Change; Rice Production; Error Correction Model; Vietnam

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