Research on World Agricultural Economy

Evidence-based Analysis for ASEAN Agroeconomic Development: Implications for the US Tariff Policy

Elisa Jean Jion Nor Pau

Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia

Chen Chen Yong

Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i1.2562

Received: 01 August 2025 | Revised: 25 August 2025 | Accepted: 12 September 2025 | Published Online: 3 February 2026

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Abstract

In response to rising US protectionist trade policies, this study is important to provide evidence-based analysis for the long-standing efforts of ASEAN in agroeconomic development. Agriculture continues to play a central role in ASEAN, not only as a source of food security but also as a key driver of employment and rural development. This study contributes to the literature on input-output analysis by linking structural multiplier effects with the implications of external trade policy, thereby offering a perspective on the vulnerabilities of ASAN agriculture to US protectionism.  Using a multiregional input-output table, the study computes output and value-added multipliers by decomposing them into direct, indirect, and induced effects, and estimates bilateral linkages to trace cross-country production impacts and key enabling sectors in 2023. The findings show that most ASEAN countries experience strong indirect effects, which indicate dense intersectoral linkages and reliance on domestic supply networks. Highly induced effects in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines further highlight the important role of agriculture in generating income and reducing poverty. The US tariff policy on Indonesia’s increased agricultural commodity imports and the removal of local content requirements for its long-protected agricultural industry may disrupt the domestic supply network. This disruption could affect both local and regional markets, with particular consequences for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

Keywords: Agriculture; Asean; Local Content; Tariffs; Input‑Output

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