Research on World Agricultural Economy

The Indian Dairy Market: Forecast, Risk and Strategic Roadmap to 2030

Neha Patvardhan

Symbiosis Institute of International Business, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune 411057, India

Cheenu Rathi

Symbiosis Institute of International Business, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune 411057, India

Ashok Chopra

Amity University Dubai, DAIC (Dubai International Academic City), Dubai P.O. Box 345019, UAE

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i1.2527

Received: 24 July 2025 | Revised: 19 September 2025 | Accepted: 25 September 2025 | Published Online: 24 December 2025

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Abstract

The Indian dairy sector is a vital industry experiencing significant transformation due to innovation, increased brand competition, new entrants, and retail evolution. A resource-informed roadmap is crucial for guiding investors, marketers, and policymakers in capitalising on opportunities in this dynamic landscape. In this regard, the current study aims to provide a roadmap for the traditional Indian cooperatives. It utilises comprehensive trend and forecasting analysis of the Indian dairy market. By leveraging data on brand share, company share, retail channels, and product ingredients used, the current study employs multiple models to examine the growth patterns of market leaders and emerging players. The study also includes growth analysis of the emerging hypermarket format in retail and market shares of various products. The best-fitting model is validated using residual analysis and cross-validation techniques. The study reveals that emerging players exhibit unstable yet aggressive growth, indicating their potential for disruption. The hypermarket assessment shows the retail industry's robust linear growth. This study employs the comprehensive GE-Matrix to analyse the strategic positioning of various players. Its novelty lies in integrating different model confidences into the strategic GE Matrix concerning the Indian dairy market. The findings suggest that traditional market players must innovate to maintain their stable growth, while investors must address and understand the challenges posed by the aggressive growth of emerging players. This research provides comprehensive data analysis, predictive insights into future trends, and strategic guidance for traditional market players in the Indian dairy industry.

Keywords: Indian Dairy Market; Regression Analysis; Brand Share; Company Share; Hypermarkets; Market Share; GE Matrix Framework

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