Research on World Agricultural Economy

How Rural Demographic Changes Affect Rural Policy Outcomes: A Cohort Analysis of Korea’s Rural Revitalization Project

Eunji Choi

Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, Sejong 30147, Korea

Kyungjae Lee

Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea

Seongwoo Lee

Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences and Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i1.2461

Received: 14 July 2025 | Revised: 31 July 2025 | Accepted: 22 August 2025 | Published Online: 22 January 2026

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Abstract

The composition of the rural population in South Korea is highly skewed older, with the continuous trends of depopulation and aging at an unprecedented rate. However, with the constant inflow of urban-to-rural migrants, rural demographic groups have become more diversified over the last decade. Although relatively small in number, new groups of farmers with distinguished life values and experiences are becoming increasingly noticeable in rural areas. Against this backdrop, the present study attempts to examine the effectiveness of an area-based, community-led rural revitalization project by birth and farming experience cohorts. The paper employs a double-cohort model design that nests birth cohorts within farming experience cohorts using the propensity score matching and the ordered logit model. The comparison of the trajectory of agricultural income between the project-implemented areas and non-implemented areas suggests that the benefits of the project were unequally shared among different cohorts. Young farmers in their early career stage living in the project-implemented areas experienced a significant increase in the probability of earning a higher agricultural income. On the other hand, no perceptible difference in the agricultural income trajectory over the study years was found between the project implemented areas and non-implemented areas for the case of elderly farmers, regardless of their levels of experience in farming. The study highlights the necessity to reflect rural demographic changes when designing an area-based, community-led rural development project.

Keywords: Rural Development; Population; Econometric Model; Agriculture

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