Research on World Agricultural Economy

The Turkish Walnut Market: Price Transmission, Climate Impacts, and Policy Implications

Çağlar Yurtseven

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Bahçeşehir University, Istanbul 34353, Turkey

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i4.2376

Received: 25 June 2025 | Revised: 17 July 2025 | Accepted: 18 August 2025 | Published Online: 4 November 2025

---

Abstract

This study examines the interplay of price transmission mechanisms, climate shocks, and exchange rate dynamics in Turkey’s walnut market using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. Analyzing monthly data on domestic producer prices, import prices, and production volumes, we uncover a counterintuitive inverse relationship between import and domestic prices: a 1% rise in import prices reduces domestic producer prices by 2.3% within two months, with a cumulative effect of 4.1% over five months. This suggests domestic producers lower prices to compete with higher-cost imports, revealing an "import competition effect" unique to this market. Exchange rate volatility amplifies this dynamic, with a 10% depreciation of the Turkish Lira raising import prices by 7.2%, accounting for 22% of their variance. Climate shocks further disrupt market equilibrium asymmetrically. Frost events trigger immediate production declines (−14.7%) and rapid price spikes (+5.3% within one month), while droughts cause protracted supply reductions (−8.4% over six months). Critically, climate shocks double the elasticity of domestic prices to import price changes (−0.47 vs. −0.23) and accelerate transmission, peaking within one month instead of two. Policy implications emphasize exchange rate stabilization (e.g., central bank currency swaps could reduce pass-through by 31%), climate adaptation (drought-resistant cultivars and drip irrigation may cut production volatility by 17–23%), and hybrid trade policies (seasonal tariffs with quotas). These findings underscore the vulnerability of perennial crop markets in emerging economies to global and climatic shocks, offering a framework for building resilience in analogous agricultural sectors.

Keywords: Turkish Walnut Market; Price Transmission; Climate Change; Drip Irrigation; Exchange Rate

---

References

[1] International Monetary Fund, 2002. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey. IMF Working Paper No. 02/204. International Monetary Fund: Washington, DC, USA. pp. 1–18.

[2] Mercan, Ç., 2025. Assessment of Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Cultivation Land Suitability Using a Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Method in Southeastern Turkey. Scientific Reports. 15, 2716. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87110-8

[3] Doldur, H., 2017. Production and Trade of Walnut in Turkey. In: Efe, R., Penkova, R., Wendt, J.A., et al. (eds.). Developments in Social Sciences. St. Kliment Ohridski University Press: Sofia, Bulgaria. pp. 191–201.

[4] Akça, Y., Yılmaz, S., 2017. Walnut Production in Turkey From Past to Present. In Proceedings of the VIII International Scientific Agriculture Symposium, Agrosym 2017, Jahorina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 5–8 October 2017; pp. 904–910.

[5] Candemir, S., Ağizan, K., Doğan, H.G., et al., 2024. Energy Use and Carbon Emissions of Walnut Production in Türkiye. Applied Fruit Science. 66, 1347–1354. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-024-01142-4

[6] Aksoy, A., Kaymak, H.Ç., 2021. Walnut Industry Competitiveness Analysis: Seven Leading Country Examples. Atatürk University Journal of Agriculture Faculty. 52(2), 139–147. (in Turkish)

[7] Azizpanah, A., Fathi, R., 2021. Analysis of Energy Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Walnut Orchards: A Case Study in Ilam Region. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology. 10(2), 33–50. (in Persian)

[8] Vahdati, K., Khorami, S.S., Arab, M.M., 2018. Walnut: A Potential Multipurpose Nut Crop for Reclaiming Deteriorated Lands and Environment. Acta Horticulturae. 1190, 95–100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1190.16

[9] Ketenci, C.K., Bayramoğlu, Z., 2018. Competitive Analysis of Walnut Production in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences. 5(3), 339–347. (in Turkish)

[10] Unakitan, G., Inan, O., 2020. Energy Efficiency and Economic Analysis of Walnut Production in Turkey. Erwerbs-Obstbau. 62, 481–487. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-020-00528-4

[11] Güvenç, İ., Kazankaya, A., 2019. Walnut Production, Foreign Trade, and Competitiveness in Turkey. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 29(3), 418–424. (in Turkish)

[12] Gundogmus, E., 2013. Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Energy Inputs for Walnut Production. Actual Problems Of Economic. 140(2), 188–197.

[13] Çıtıl, E., Özbek, O., Çelik, S.A., et al., 2025. On the Study of Energy Use Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Kaman Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Production in Türkiye. Applied Fruit Science. 67, 125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-025-01362-2

[14] Çukur, T., Işın, F., Çukur, F., 2023. Analysis of the Relationship Between Walnut Production and Price. Gaziosmanpaşa University Scientific Journal. 12(1), 101–106. (in Turkish)

[15] Bayazit, S., Tefek, H., Çalışkan, O., 2016. Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Researches in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Agriculture Faculty. 11(1), 169–179. (in Turkish)

[16] Oğuz, H.I., Gökdoğan, O., Baran, M.F., et al., 2018. Potential of Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Nursery Production and Its Economic Importance in Turkey. In Proceedings of the XXX International Horticultural Congress IHC2018: XIX Symposium on Horticultural Economics and Management, VII Symposium on Supply Chains, II Symposium on Economics, Marketing and Consumer Research and VIII Symposium on Education and Consultancy, Istanbul, Turkey, 12–16 August 2018; pp. 149–154.

[17] Aşkan, E., 2021. Economic Analysis and Marketing Margin of Walnut Market in Turkey. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology. 11(4), 3163–3171. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21597/jist.956017

[18] Beckman, J., Jarrell, P., Morgan, S., 2025. Increasing Tariffs on Almond and Walnut Exports to Turkey. Economic Brief No. 39. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (ERS): Washington, DC, USA. pp. 1–19.

[19] Ertugrul, Ö., 2025. Determination of Energy Production Potential From Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Residues in Kırşehir Province. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology. 13(3), 581–586. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v13i3.581-586.7557

[20] Akça, Y., Polat, A.A., 2007. Present Status and Future of Walnut Production in Turkey. The European Journal of Plant Science and Biotechnology. 1(1), 57–64.

[21] Akçay, Y., Cicek, A., Uzunoz, M., 1999. The Uncertainty Analysis for Yield, Price and Gross Income in the Walnut Growing in Turkey (1978–1998). In Proceedings of the IV International Walnut Symposium, Bordeaux, France, 13–16 September 1999; pp. 573–583.

[22] Çiçek, A., Akçay, Y., Sayili, M., et al., 1999. A Comparative Economic Analysis Between Walnut and Its Alternative Crops in the Region: A Case Study of Niksar-Tokat-Turkey. In Proceedings of the IV International Walnut Symposium, Bordeaux, France, 13–16 September 1999; pp. 605–616.

[23] Koyuncu, F.T., Koyuncu, O., 2019. Walnut (Juglans regia) Agriculture and Economy in Turkey. Research Journal of Biology Sciences. 12(2), 22–24.

[24] Güvenç, İ., Purlu, G., 2022. Projections of Walnut Production and Demand in Turkey for the 2020-2045 Period. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Agriculture and Nature Journal. 25(1), 57–65. (in Turkish)

[25] Kadakoğlu, B., Bayav, A., Karlı, B., 2022. Walnut Production Projection and Competitiveness Analysis in Turkey. Meyve Bilimi. 9(1), 8–15. (in Turkish)

[26] Sims, C.A., 1980. Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica. 48(1), 1–48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017

[27] Karaman, G., 2024. Examining the Labor Market Reflections of Female Labor in Food Businesses Based on Hazelnut Farming in Turkey. Asya Studies. 8(29), 175–184. (in Turkish)

[28] Ozturk, S.S., Demirer, R., Gupta, R., 2022. Climate Uncertainty and Carbon Emissions Prices: The Relative Roles of Transition and Physical Climate Risks. Economics Letters. 217, 110687. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110687

[29] Lopez, G., Juillion, P., Hitte, V., et al., 2023. Protecting Flowers of Fruit Trees From Frost With Dynamic Agrivoltaic Systems. In Proceedings of the 4th World Conference on Agrivoltaics, Daegu, Korea, 12–14 April 2023; pp. 1–8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52825/agripv.v2i.1002

[30] Serrano-Notivoli, R., Tejedor, E., Sarricolea, P., et al., 2023. Unprecedented Warmth: A Look at Spain's Exceptional Summer of 2022. Atmospheric Research. 293, 106931. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106931

[31] Parulava, N., Baidauri, L., Kharaishvili, O., 2023. Economic-Ecological Features of Ordinary Walnut (Juglans regia L) With Regard to the Irrigation Regime. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific Conference, London, UK, 02–03 March 2023; pp. 45–49.