Research on World Agricultural Economy

Agricultural intensiϐication in China has created tensions between food security imperatives and ecosystem sustainability, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of ecological trade‑offs in major grain‑producing regions. This study quantiϐied ecosystem service values (ESV) across 13 provinces during 2008–2023 using an enhanced equivalent factor methodology integrated with the Costanza valuation framework. The spatiotemporal analysis revealed that total ESV increased by 68.4% over the study period, yet signiϐicant regional disparities emerged be‑tween production capacity and ecological functionality. High‑output provinces, including Heilongjiang, Henan, and Shandong, demonstrated persistently low per‑unit ESV (715.5–2492.3 CNY/hm²), remaining 40–50% below ecological leaders such as Jiangsu (3073.0 CNY/hm²). The research identified a paradoxical inverse relationship wherein provinces contributing most to national grain security exhibited the poorest ecological performance, with cropland ESV contribution ratios varying from 3.4% in Inner Mongolia to 29.1% in Henan. Yangtze River Basin provinces emerged as exemplars of balanced development, maintaining 6.8–7.5% annual ESV growth alongside moderate production levels. The spatially differentiated framework developed from these findings suggests targeted interventions could reduce resource consumption by 18–22% in intensive farming regions while enhancing water efficiency by 30–40% in arid zones. This research provides critical evidence for transitioning China's agricultural governance toward integrated ecosystem management that reconciles food production with ecological sustainability.