Research on World Agricultural Economy

Does Limited Wealth Hinder Smallholder Farmers’ Productivity in Malawi? A Systematic Review and Bayesian Regression Analysis

Efrem Chilima

Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and African Centre of Excellence, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lilongwe P.O. Box 219, Malawi

Innocent Pangapanga Phiri

Center for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD), Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lilongwe P.O. Box 219, Malawi

Kennedy Machira

Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and African Centre of Excellence, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lilongwe P.O. Box 219, Malawi

Horace Phiri

Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and African Centre of Excellence, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lilongwe P.O. Box 219, Malawi

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i1.2010

Received: 17 April 2025 | Revised: 10 July 2025 | Accepted: 14 July 2025 | Published Online: 5 March 2026

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Abstract

Malawi's agricultural sector, dominated by poor smallholder household farmers, faces numerous challenges. Farmers usually have limited wealth, and the sector is characterized by low productivity. This study investigates how wealth hinders or supports productivity growth. The study employs a mixed-method approach that combines a systematic literature review and Bayesian moderation and mediation regression analysis. The study reveals a complex relationship, with findings indicating a negative correlation between wealth and productivity growth. This is attributed to the implementation of subsidized fertilizer program benefiting the majority of poor farming households. Further analysis revealed a more complex relationship. Specifically, wealth has a positive indirect effect on productivity through distance from district centers yet has a negative indirect effect on agricultural markets. These findings highlight the need to improve the provision of services in district centers, enhance market functionality, and address spatial disparities to optimize productivity. Initiatives such as promoting digital platforms, modernizing extension services, improving financing, and ensuring demographic management should be employed to address systemic constraints. Together, such initiatives would foster an enabling environment that supports small-scale farmers to adopt productive and commercial farming practices that drive wealth and productivity. The study's findings have significant implications not only for agricultural development policies in Malawi but also for similar agricultural development contexts.

Keywords: Wealth; Productivity; Bayesian Model; Mediation; Moderation; Malawi Smallholder Household Farmer; Systematic Review

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