Research on World Agricultural Economy

Rice Deficit Projections for Indonesia’s New Capital: A System Dynamics Analysis

Arman

Agribusiness Department, University of Trilogi, South Jakarta 12760, Indonesia

Budhi Purwandaya

Agribusiness Department, University of Trilogi, South Jakarta 12760, Indonesia

Boedi Tjahjono

Soil Science and Land Resource Department, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia

Heny Agustin

Agribusiness Department, University of Trilogi, South Jakarta 12760, Indonesia

Ginna Soniya Permata Hati

Soil Science and Land Resource Department, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia

P Setia Lenggono

Agribusiness Department, University of Trilogi, South Jakarta 12760, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i3.1981

Received: 10 April 2025 | Revised: 23 May 2025 | Accepted:4 June 2025 | Published Online: 23 July 2025

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Abstract

The aims of this study are (1) to predict the demand and supply of rice in Ibu Kota Nusantara or IKN and (2) to integrate rice food policy formulation through soil quality assessment and the projection of rice supply and demand. This study presents a novel integration of the system dynamics model with a soil quality model to assess future rice supply and demand, providing a policy-oriented tool for addressing food security in the context of IKN. The data obtained through the Focus Group Discussion process, in-depth interviews and rice field visits.  Secondary data comes from the Central Statistics Agency at the national and regional levels, Regional Development Agencies at the provincial and district/city levels. In addition, soil samples in the paddy field were taken and tested in the laboratory to determine the quality of the soil. The results of the model simulation indicate that the IKN region is projected to experience a rice surplus between 2025 and 2032. However, starting in 2033, the region is expected to face a rice deficit. To control rice production, the government needs to control land conversion and illegal mining. The government should implement mitigation policies during the deficit period by improving land quality, expanding rice planting areas, providing water dams, building irrigation, and training as well as educating the farmers.

Keywords: Availability; Deficit; Policy; Rice

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