Navigating Inflation in Indonesia’s Agricultural Sector from 2016 to 2024: Insights into Profit Margins, Asset Turnover, and Earnings Per Share

Hisar Sirait

Faculty of Economics and Business, Kwik Kian Gie School of Business, Jakarta 11530, Indonesia

Sylvia Sari Rosalina

Faculty of Economics and Business, Kwik Kian Gie School of Business, Jakarta 11530, Indonesia

Abdulah Rakhman

Faculty of Economics and Business, Kwik Kian Gie School of Business, Jakarta 11530, Indonesia

Prima Apriwenni

Faculty of Economics and Business, Kwik Kian Gie School of Business, Jakarta 11530, Indonesia

Christian Wiradendi Wolor

Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Jakarta 13220, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i4.1957

Received: 8 May 2025 | Revised: 27 May 2025 | Accepted: 7 July 2025 | Published Online: 1 September 2025

Copyright © 2025 Hisar Sirait, Sylvia Sari Rosalina, Abdulah Rakhman, Prima Apriwenni, Christian Wiradendi Wolor. Published by Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte. Ltd.

Creative Commons LicenseThis is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.


Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of inflation rate on the financial performance of the agricultural sector by using the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) using Smart PLS 4.0 software. The study examined the relationship between inflation and financial performance as measured through indicators such as profit margin and price-to-income ratio. The results of the study show that inflation has a significant negative effect on the financial performance of the agricultural sector. High inflation not only increases claims and operational costs, but also complicates the risk assessment process, impacting resource allocation and overall economic activity. In addition, the study emphasizes the importance of explicitly taking claims inflation into account in the calculation of loss reserves, especially for long-term liabilities that are vulnerable to price changes. Inflation and interest rates were also found to affect the price of production inputs, which in turn affected cost efficiency and corporate governance relationships. These findings make an important contribution to understanding the dynamics of the agricultural sector amid volatile inflationary conditions and provide policy implications that can help improve financial stability and efficiency in the sector. This research is expected to serve as a reference for policymakers and industry players in managing inflation risks effectively, as well as encouraging the development of strategies that are adaptive to macroeconomic changes. Thus, this study provides comprehensive insights into the impact of inflation on the financial performance of the agricultural sector and the importance of a structured analytical approach in the current economic context.

Keywords: Inflation; Agricultural Sector; Financial Performance


References

[1] Bashir, A., Suhel, S., Azwardi, A., et al., 2019. The Causality Between Agriculture, Industry, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia. Etikonomi. 18(2), 155–168. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v18i2.9428

[2] Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), 2023. Agricultural Indicators 2022. Available from: https://www.bps.go.id/en/publication/2023/10/13/21a20fa0c364d9f9898f2b56/agricultural-indicators-2022.html (cited 18 October 2024) (in Indonesian)

[3] World Bank Group, 2022. Global Economic Prospects, January 2022. World Bank Publications: Washington, DC, USA.

[4] Malau, L.R.E., Khaliqi, M., Rambe, K.R., et al., 2024. Measuring Determinants and Potential Exports of Indonesian Agricultural Commodities to ASEAN. Southeast Asian Journal of Economics. 12(3), 151–180.

[5] Antwi, F., 2019. Capital Adequacy, Cost Income Ratio and Performance of Banks in Ghana. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences. 9(10), 168–184. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v9-i10/6471

[6] Fakhrunnas, F., 2019. The Effect of Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Variables to Risk-Taking of Islamic Bank in Indonesia. International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance. 1(2), 165–186. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/ijief.129

[7] Mudau, T., Mokatsanyane, D., 2025. Analyzing the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Derivatives Performance in the SAFEX Market. Finance, Accounting and Business Analysis. 7(1), 16–29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37075/FABA.2025.1.02

[8] Nayak, P., Jena, P.K., 2024. Inflationary Pressures on India’s Domestic Food Prices: Unravelling the Impact of Global Macroeconomic Factors. South Asian Journal of Business Studies. 14(2), 159–180. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/SAJBS-08-2023-0281

[9] Abel, S., Henry, M., Mokumako, T., et al., 2024. Determinants of Share Prices of Agriculture Listed Firms. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. 14(4), 106–110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.16062

[10] Al Nimer, M., Warrad, L., Omari, R.A., 2015. The Impact of Liquidity on Jordanian Banks Profitability Through Return on Assets. European Journal of Business and Management. 7(7), 229–232.

[11] Doan, T.T.T., Bui, T.N., 2020. An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Factors Affecting Profitability of Vietnam Banks. Accounting. 6(6), 1059–1064.

[12] Islam, H., Rahman, J., Tanchangya, T., et al., 2023. Impact of Firms’ Size, Leverage, and Net Profit Margin on Firms’ Profitability in the Manufacturing Sector of Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis Using GMM Estimation. Jurnal Ekon. 5(1), 1–9.

[13] Davis, E.P., Karim, D., Noel, D., 2022. The Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Banks’ Profitability. International Review of Financial Analysis. 80, 101989.

[14] Petria, N., Capraru, B., Ihnatov, I., 2015. Determinants of Banks’ Profitability: Evidence from EU 27 Banking Systems. Procedia Economics and Finance. 20, 518–524.

[15] Korytowski, M., 2018. Banks’ Profitability Determinants in Post-Crisis European Union. International Journal of Finance and Banking Studies. 7(1), 1–12.

[16] Mitrović, D., 2023. The Dynamics of the Republic of Serbia’s Cooperation with China via the Belt and Road Initiative and the ‘Sixteen plus One’ Platform. Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies. 12(1), 148–178.

[17] Horobet, A., Radulescu, M., Belascu, L., et al., 2021. Determinants of Bank Profitability in CEE Countries: Evidence from GMM Panel Data Estimates. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 14(7), 307.

[18] Căpraru, B., Ihnatov, I., 2014. Banks’ Profitability in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance. 16, 587–591.

[19] Borroni, M., Rossi, S., 2019. Banking in Europe: The Quest for Profitability After the Great Financial Crisis. Springer: Cham, Switzerland.

[20] Ahmad, M., Zebo, K., Ismailova, N., et al., 2024. Effect of the Supply-Side Factors on Inflation in South Asia: An Analysis of Oil Price, Technology, and Labor Market Dynamics. Research in Globalization. 8, 100210. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100210

[21] Ahmad, M., Kuldasheva, Z., Nasriddinov, F., et al., 2023. Is Achieving Environmental Sustainability Dependent on Information Communication Technology and Globalization? Evidence from Selected OECD Countries. Environmental Technology & Innovation. 31, 103178.

[22] Schwarzer, J.A., 2018. Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the ‘Cruel Dilemma’. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 32(1), 195–210.

[23] Amano, M., 2020. Inflation: Demand-Pull or Cost-Push? Optimization-Based, Three-Country Estimation. Economic Journal of Chiba University. 34(3), 303–320.

[24] Monfort, B., Peña, S., 2009. Inflation Determinants: Cost Push Versus Demand Pull Factors. In: Santos, A. (ed.). Paraguay Addressing Stagnation and Instability Trap. International Monetary Fund: Washington, D.C., USA. pp. 141–193.

[25] Hussain, A., Obaid, Z., 2013. Cost-Push vs Demand-Pull Inflation: Evidence from an Emerging Economy (Pakistan). Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences. 21(2), 23.

[26] Laporšek, S., Švagan, B., Stubelj, M., et al., 2025. Profitability Drivers in European Banks: Analyzing Internal and External Factors in the Post-2009 Financial Landscape. Risks. 13(1), 2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13010002

[27] Hemrit, W., 2020. Determinants Driving Takaful and Cooperative Insurance Financial Performance in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Accounting and Organizational Change. 16(1), 123–143. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JAOC-03-2019-0039

[28] Kader, H.A., Adams, M., Hardwick, P., et al., 2014. Cost Efficiency and Board Composition Under Different Takaful Insurance Business Models. International Review of Financial Analysis. 32, 60–70.

[29] Buhamizo, I., Muhwezi, L., Sengonzi, R., 2023. A Regression Model to Enhance the Profitability of Local Construction Contractors in Uganda. Journal of Construction in Developing Countries. 28(1), 221–241.

[30] Achsani, N.A., Sasongko, H., 2020. The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors and Macroeconomic Factors on Gross Operating Profit (Case Study: PT Perkebunan Nusantara V). Jurnal Riset Manajemen Sains Indonesia. 11(1), 86–105. (in Indonesian)

[31] Darminto, D., 2010. The Influence of External Factors and Various Financial Decisions on Company Value . Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen. 8(1), 138–150.

[32] Istyawati, N., 2019. The Influence of Leverage, Liquidity, Company Size, Inflation, and Profitability (A Study of Property, Real Estate, and Building Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange). Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen. 7(3), 668–676. (in Indonesian)

[33] Imaama, R.N., Sapari, S., 2019. The Influence of Capital Adequacy Ratio, Inflation, Liquidity, and Credit Risk on Banking Profitability [Pengaruh Nilai Kecukupan Modal, Inflasi, Likuiditas, dan Risiko Kredit Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan]. Jurnal Ilmu dan Riset Akuntansi. 8(2), 9–17.

[34] Muhaemin, A., Wiliasih, R., 2016. Analysis of Factors Influencing the Profitability of Islamic Rural Financing Banks in Indonesia. Nisbah: Jurnal Perbankan Syariah. 2(1), 180–206. (in Indonesian)

[35] Rukman, A.A.N., Harianto, H., Suprehatin, S., 2019. Reaction of Stock Prices of Agribusiness Companies in the LQ-45 Index to Changes in Macroeconomic Variables. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia. 7(2), 129–140. (in Indonesian)

[36] Rifai, A., Irawan, T., Indrawan, D., 2024. The Effect of Government Policy on Infrastructure Priorities on the Profitability of Construction Companies in Indonesia 2011-2019. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business. 39(3), 308–327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.v39i3.4369

[37] Osazefua, I.J., 2019. Operational efficiency and financial sustainability of listed manufacturing companies in Nigeria. Journal of Accounting and Taxation. 11(1), 17–31. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/JAT2018.0329

[38] Akshathraj, J., Stegăroiu, C.E., Stegăroiu, V., et al., 2023. Examining the Dependence of Textile Company Performance on Macroeconomic Variables. Industria Textila. 74(6), 713–717. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35530/IT.074.06.2022141

[39] Elfiswandi, Sanjaya, S., Pratiwi, N., et al., 2020. Macroeconomic Factors, Energy Consumption and Firms Performance on Stock Return of Mining and Energy Sector: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 10(6), 229–234. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10207

[40] Ahlgrim, K.C., D’Arcy, S.P., 2012. A User’s Guide to the Inflation Generator. Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS): Arlington, Virginia, USA; Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA): Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Society of Actuaries (SOA): Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. Available from: https://dr.soa.org/49383e/globalassets/assets/files/research/projects/research-2012-02-effect-deflation-user-guide.pdf (cited 3 September 2024).

[41] D’Arcy, P., Gustafsson, L., 2012. Australia’s Productivity Performance and Real Incomes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bulletin. June, 23–35.

[42] Bilan, I., Roman, A., 2016. Macroeconomic Environment and Banking Sector Soundness in CEE Countries. Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series. 16(2), 421–426.

[43] Juliardi, S.E., Fachrudin, H.T., 2022. Oil Palm Plantation Assessment . Merdeka Kreasi Group: Jakarta, Indonesia. (in Indonesian)

[44] Hair, J., Hult, G.T.M., Ringle, C.M., et al., 2014. A Primer on Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). SAGE Publications: Thousand Oaks, CA, USA.

[45] Liu, J., Mengjiao W., Li Y., et al., 2020. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Its Determinants in South and Southeast Asian Countries" Sustainability. 12, 4981. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124981

[46] Daryanto, Wiwiek M., 2017. Financial Performance Analysis and Evaluation of Palm Oil Agroindustry: an Indonesia Experience. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Bisnis. 3(1), 112–130. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.22441/jimb.v3i1.3550

[47] Mateos-Ronco, A., Guzmán-Asunción, S., 2018. Determinants of financing decisions and management implications: Evidence from Spanish agricultural cooperatives. International Food and Agribusiness Management Association. 21(6), 701–721. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22434/IFAMR2016.0178

[48] Krishna, V.V., Kubitza, C., Pascual, U., et al., 2017. Land markets, property rights, and deforestation: insights from Indonesia. World Development. 99, 335–349. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.018

[49] BPS, 2023. Agricultural Commodity Export Statistics. Available from: https://www.bps.go.id/id/publication/2024/07/05/6ffc824be8e6f0857ec815a2/analisis-komoditas-ekspor--2019-2023--sektor-pertanian--kehutanan--dan-perikanan-sektor-industri-pengolahan-dan-sektor-pertambangan-dan-lainnya.html (cited 10 April 2025) (in Indonesian)

[50] Chetthamrongchai, P., Somjai, S., Chankoson, T., 2020. The contribution of macroeconomic factors in determining the economic growth, export and the agricultural output in agri-based ASEAN economies. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues. 7(3), 2043–2059. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.7.3(40)

[51] Muhammed, A.B., 2024. The Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Productivity and Food Prices in Nigeria: A Time-Series Analysis. African Journal of Stability and Development (AJSD). 16(2), 291–315. DOI: https://doi.org/10.53982/ajsd.2024.1602.06-j

[52] Brigham, E.F., Houston, J.F., 2018. Fundamental of Financial Management, 10th ed. Cengage Learning: Boston, MA, USA.

[53] Nugroho, A.D., Bhagat, P. R., Magda, R.,et al., 2021. The impacts of economic globalization on agricultural value added in developing countries. PloS one. 16(11), e0260043. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260043

[54] Hardi, I., Idroes, G. M., Utami, R. T., et al., 2023. Dynamic Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate in Indonesia's Top 10 Market Capitalization Companies: Implications for Stock Prices. Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting, 1(2), 51–59. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.60084/ijma.v1i2.110

[55] Harmawan, R.A., 2024. Challenges and Strategies for Rice Price Stability: A Systematic Review of Supply Chain Dynamics in Indonesia During Critical Periods. Challenges and Strategies for Rice Price Stability: A Systematic Review of Supply Chain Dynamics in Indonesia During Critical Periods. Available from: https://eprints.ulbi.ac.id/id/eprint/2859 (cited 10 April 2025)

[56] Euler, M., 2015. Oil palm expansion among Indonesian smallholders-adoption, welfare implications and agronomic challenges [Doctoral dissertation]. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-5103 (in Indonesian)

[57] Loang, O.K., Candra, S., Naveenan, R.V., 2024. Stability in chaos: Impact of monetary, fiscal, and firm characteristics on investor sentiment in Asian emerging markets. International Journal of Business and Society, 25(3), 1145–1164. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.8573.2024

[58] Chirwa, T.G., Odhiambo, N.M., 2016. Macroeconomic determinants of economic growth: A review of international literature. The South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 11(2), 33–47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jeb-2016-0009

[59] Purnomo, H., Sugeng, B., Handayati, P., 2024. Strategy of Derivatives Hedging: Maintaining and Increasing Firm Value Amidst Market Volatility in Indonesia. Shafin: Sharia Finance and Accounting Journal, 4(2), 66–84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19105/sfj.v4i2.15502

[60] Adiraputra, P., Supyandi, D., 2021. The effectiveness of fertilizer subsidy: how the impact to the production. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 15(2), 345–356. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24843/SOCA.2021.v15.i02.p10

Online ISSN: 2737-4785, Print ISSN: 2737-4777, Published by Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte. Ltd.