Research on World Agricultural Economy

Climate Change and Crop Production Vulnerability in Somalia: A VECM Analysis for Sustainable Agriculture

Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur

Department of Research and Statistics, Central Bank of Somalia, Mogadishu P.O. Box 11, Somalia

Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali

Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu P.O. Box 630, Somalia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i3.1815

Received: 6 March 2025 | Revised: 9 April 2025 | Accepted: 15 April 2025 | Published Online: 16 July 2025

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Abstract

Somali crop production is vulnerable to climate change, as agriculture is heavily reliant on rainfall. Increased temperatures, sporadic rainfall, and higher levels of CO₂ emissions threaten food security as well as the livelihoods in rural areas. While global studies discuss these issues, there is a lack of empirical research on Somalia. This research attempts to study the gap created by the absence of research regarding the vulnerability of crop production to climate change and its sustainable agriculture aspects. The study uses a vector error correction model (VECM) to evaluate how climate factors, including temperature, rainfall, CO₂ emissions, land designated for agriculture, and labour, affect crop production in the short and long term. The study found that CO₂, temperature, and rainfall lead to boosted crop production in the short term because of the traditional adaptation strategies employed by farmers. In the long term, a 1% increase in CO₂ emissions leads to a 57% reduction in crop production, and a similar rise in temperature causes production levels to fall over 100%. Rainfall, agricultural land, and labour continue to positively influence production levels in both periods. These results strongly indicate the necessity of climate-resilient strategies, better irrigation systems, and new forms of farming. The promotion of climate-smart agriculture will help mitigate the negative effects of climate change on the agricultural sector of Somalia while simultaneously catering to the issue of food security. 

Keywords: Crop Production; Climate Change; VECM; Cointegration; Equilibrium

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