Research on World Agricultural Economy

Predicting the Performance of Vietnamese Sugar Mills: An Application of the Grey Verhulst Model

Nguyen-Nhu-Y Ho

International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam

Phuong Mai Nguyen

International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam

Huong Linh Le

International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam

Huu Khanh Nguyen

International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v5i4.1301

Received: 5 September 2024 | Revised: 8 October 2024 | Accepted: 15 October 2024 | Published Online: 29 November 2024

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Abstract

The sugar industry plays a critical role in the Vietnamese economy, contributing to annual economic growth and job creation. However, the performance of Vietnamese sugar mills has been recognized to be under potential and seems to decline in recent years due to changes in the internal and external environments. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate and predict the performance of companies in this industry to find solutions for their long-run growth. In such a context, this paper aims to predict the performance of Vietnamese sugar mills so that they can improve their profitability for sustainable development in the future. We employed the Grey Verhulst model to analyze data from 16 Vietnamese sugar mills in the 2020–2023 period. The data collected include key financial indicators, such as total assets, cost of goods sold, selling and distribution costs, net profit, and inventory. Firstly, we proved that our proposed forecast model is applicable for the Vietnamese sugar industry with high percentage of reliability and accuracy. Then, using the model, we have predicted the performance of these firms for the period of 2024–2027. Our prediction shows that sugar mills grapple with familiar industry challenges as consumption declines. It is predicted that net profit criteria have the tendency to decline This slowdown places them under significant competitive pressure from foreign sugar producers. Thus, we suggest that sugar mills use our research results to formulate their strategic plan to mitigate the potential risks and position themselves in the market for their long-term profit and sustainable development in the future. 

Keywords: Firm Performance; Grey Verhulst Model; Sugar Industry; Sugar Mills

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