Key Determinants of Crop Production in Indonesia: Empirical Evidence of the Long-Run Relationship under Structural Breaks
Abstract
This study examines the effects of agricultural and energy resource utilization, credit, international food prices, and temperature on crop production in Indonesia. The relationship between crop production and its determinants is analyzed using cointegration regression, taking into account structural breaks in the study period. The regression analysis uses annual data from 1970 to 2022. The study results reveal that fertilizer consumption, renewable and fossil energy use are key determinants of crop production. The problem with fertilizer use is crop dependence, particularly on chemical fertilizers. This problem creates a cycle where farmers rely heavily on fertilizers to achieve optimal productivity, but with negative long-term environmental impacts. The use of organic fertilizers should be encouraged to improve soil health, enhance soil structure, and increase sustainable agricultural productivity, particularly through the utilization of livestock waste and crop residues. The use of renewable energy in agriculture, particularly through solar panels for irrigation and waste-based biomass, has the potential to increase energy efficiency and reduce production costs. These technologies support sustainable agriculture by reducing carbon emissions and promoting energy independence in rural areas, though they face challenges such as high initial investment and a lack of farmers' technological literacy.
Keywords: Cointegration Regression, Crop Production, Energy Resource, Fertilizer Consumption, Sustainable Agriculture
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