Research on World Agricultural Economy

Rubber plantations, as long-term perennial crops, hold significant potential for climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration; however, a standardized carbon credit compensation model aligned with plantation management cycles remains absent in the voluntary market. This study aimed to develop a framework for assessing carbon stock potential and analyzing carbon credit revenue by categorizing the rubber plantation lifecycle into four distinct 7-year developmental stages: S1 (1 to 7 yrs), S2 (>7 to 14 yrs), S3 (>14 to 21 yrs), and S4 (>21 to 28 yrs), assessing GHG emissions, and projecting income. The results demonstrated that GHG emissions increased significantly across the developmental stages (from 0.40 in S1 to 1.20 Mg CO2e/ha/yr in S4). Conversely, the net GHG stock rate peaked in the mid-aged stage (21.01 Mg CO2e/ha/yr in S2), reflecting the period of most vigorous biomass accumulation. However, the stock rate was lowest in the initial S1 stage (18.65 Mg CO2e/ha/yr) and declined to 19.88 Mg CO2e/ha/yr in S4. Economic analysis revealed that the mid-to-older-aged stages offered the highest potential net revenue, ranging from the maximum of $1,335.71 (S2) down to $1,264.70 (S4) per contract stage. Historical price analysis (2015 to 2024) further highlighted extreme market volatility, with aggregate revenue surging from a low of $1,528.72 per contract stage in 2017 to a peak of $10,248.80 per contract stage in 2024. In conclusion, the 7-year age-stage benchmark supports the implementation of sustainable carbon credit projects. Policy intervention, however, is essential to mitigate price uncertainty risks and ensure flexible long-term contracts for equitable and continuous participation by smallholder farmers.