Research on World Agricultural Economy

This study examines how smart and agri-digital technologies contribute to export competitiveness in agrifood markets through innovation diffusion and value-chain upgrading, while considering the conditioning role of the climate risk and policy support. Cross-sectional survey data were collected from processed-food and dairy firms in the United Arab Emirates and Bulgaria, and analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling with latent-moderation and serial mediation and multi-group analysis (MGA). Robustness is validated with 2-Stage Least Squares/Instrumental Variables (2SLS-IV) and Covariance-Based Structural Equation Modeling (CB-SEM) comparisons. The findings indicate that digital adoption stimulates both process and product innovation, which subsequently enhances value-chain upgrading and export competitiveness. Climate risk weakens the positive effect of innovation diffusion and upgrading, whereas policy support strengthens the conversion of upgrading outcomes into export performance. Comparative analysis shows stronger adoption-to-upgrading and upgrading-to-export pathways in the UAE than in Bulgaria, reflecting the institutional and logistical differences. The study advances the integration of the Diffusion of Innovations and the Global Value Chain theories by explaining when and how digital transformation yields export gains under varying risk and policy environments. These insights provide practical direction for the agrifood firms and policymakers seeking to strengthen digitalization strategies, innovation capacity, and climate-resilient export performance.