Research on World Agricultural Economy

Rubber is one of the most economically significant agricultural products in Thailand. It creates jobs in rural communities, thereby alleviating the problem of labor migration from rural to urban areas, helping to maintain family unity and strengthen communities. The objective of this study is to examine the macroeconomic factors affecting rubber concentrated latex prices during the period from January 2011 to December 2024 and to apply the Box-Jenkins technique for forecasting daily rubber concentrated latex prices in Thailand from January 4, 2017, to March 31, 2025. The data were collected from several secondary sources, including the Rubber Authority of Thailand, Investing.com, and the Rubber Intelligence Unit. Pearson's correlation and multiple regression were applied for data analysis, while the Box-Jenkins technique was used for forecasting. The results indicated that crude oil prices, exchange rates, imports of rubber products, and exports of rubber products significantly predict rubber concentrated latex prices in Thailand. The Box-Jenkins technique (1,1,0) model was chosen, as it satisfies the goodness-of-fit criteria. The developed forecasting model enables rubber market participants to mitigate price volatility and optimize their strategic decisions. Given the interconnected nature of commodity markets, factors influencing rubber prices often exhibit similar effects across related agricultural commodities, making this model valuable for broader commodity market investment decisions.