Research on World Agricultural Economy

Sustainable development has become a major concern, particularly in developing Asian countries, where increasing pressures arise from structural imbalances in both the financial system and agricultural production. Although financial inclusion has expanded significantly, its effectiveness in supporting productive sectors, especially agriculture, remains uneven. At the same time, agricultural productivity continues to play an important role in improving rural income, ensuring food security, and supporting long-term development. However, existing studies often examine financial inclusion or agricultural productivity separately, leaving their combined role in sustainable development insufficiently explored. This study uses panel data from 19 developing Asian countries over the period 2000–2023 to examine the relationship between financial inclusion, agricultural productivity, and sustainable development using a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for cross-country heterogeneity. The results indicate that financial inclusion and agricultural productivity are positively associated with sustainable development, although the magnitude and stability of these effects vary across countries. Agricultural productivity shows a more consistent effect, whereas the influence of financial inclusion differs significantly across the sample. Trade openness and investment do not show clear evidence, while population growth is negatively associated with sustainable development. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening the linkage between financial systems and productive sectors, particularly agriculture, to promote more balanced and sustainable development outcomes.