Strategic Management of the Agri-Food Supply Chain in Sucre, Colombia: A Scenario-Based Model of the Yam Selling Price
Copyright © 2026 Gean Pablo Mendoza‑Ortega, Laura Vanessa Sierra Canchila, Erika Johana Ramírez Ocampo, Angelica Torregroza Espinoza. Published by Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte. Ltd.
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.
Abstract
This research examines the design of agri-food supply chains in rural settings, where small and medium producers encounter persistent difficulties in accessing formal markets due to fragmented logistics systems and price volatility. The study focuses on the yam supply chain in the Sabana de Sucre sub-region (Colombia) and aims to identify an optimal hub location and distribution strategy that maximizes expected utility under uncertain selling prices. A stochastic hub location model is proposed, incorporating multiple products (Diamante, Criollo, and Espino), a network of 179 producers, and several consumption centers. Price uncertainty is represented through a scenario-based framework consisting of 64 price combinations derived from empirical wholesale market data. The resulting formulation corresponds to a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model, implemented and solved using General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and CPLEX. The results indicate five optimal hub locations—Sincelejo, Corozal, Los Palmitos, San Juan de Betulia, and Sincé—which lead to improvements in distribution efficiency and reductions in logistical costs. Expected utility remains very close to the best-case outcomes across scenarios, supporting the effectiveness of the approach. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis on transportation costs shows that, although profitability exhibits non-linear variations, the network configuration remains stable, indicating structural robustness. The study contributes to the literature by extending stochastic hub location models in agri-food systems through the explicit incorporation of price variability as a structural driver of network design decisions. From a practical perspective, the findings provide actionable insights for improving rural logistics and facilitating the integration of small and medium producers into formal markets.
Keywords: Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture, Distribution of Perishable Products, Caribbean Region, Optimization Models, Stochastic Models, Logistical Efficiency
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