Research on World Agricultural Economy

Improving farm productivity is central to rural income growth and food security in emerging economies, where imperfect credit markets often constrain productive investment. This study examines whether regional development of digital financial inclusion (FinTech) is associated with improved rural credit access and higher farm productivity in China, and whether local conditions shape these relationships. Using household-level panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) for 2014–2020 matched with county- and city-level measures from the Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index (PKU-DFIIC), we estimate two-way fixed-effects models controlling for household and year heterogeneity. The results show that households located in regions with higher FinTech development exhibit better credit outcomes, measured by both credit participation and borrowing intensity. Rural credit access is positively associated with agricultural total factor productivity, and the estimated association between FinTech development and productivity is attenuated when credit access is included, consistent with a partial mediation pattern. Heterogeneity analyzes further indicate that these associations are stronger in areas with better digital infrastructure and higher return-migration intensity. While the analysis does not claim definitive causal effects, the findings provide robust evidence consistent with the view that digital financial development can relax rural credit constraints and support productive investment, highlighting the importance of complementary infrastructure and demographic conditions in translating financial inclusion into agricultural productivity gains.