Research on World Agricultural Economy

Coffee represents culture, identity, and national pride in Colombia, accounting for 0.5% of national GDP, 7.6% of agricultural GDP, and 9.8% of traditional exports in 2023. Antioquia has traditionally been a coffee-growing region, which in 2023 accounted for 13.3% of the planted area and 14.5% of national production. Between 2009 and 2023, the region reduced its planted area by 14.7% and its production by 4.1%. This change appears to be associated with replacement by avocado crops. We analyzed the association between avocado and coffee-planted areas in 94 traditional coffee-producing municipalities in Antioquia between 2009 and 2023, using a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) panel data model. Descriptive statistics are complemented by bivariate cartography, a ternary diagram, and Simpson's Diversity Index (SDI). The results show a significant decrease in coffee and an increase in avocado planted areas. Antioquia is the main avocado producer in Colombia, with increases of 474.4% in planted area, 720.2% in harvested area, and 962.2% in production between 2009 and 2023. The econometric analysis showed statistically significant results for coffee prices, avocado prices, and banana-planted area. In addition, when we introduced a policy effect into the model specification, the results showed a statistically significant effect of the increase in avocado area on the reduction of coffee area, attributable to the policy implemented in 2012. In conclusion, an inverse and statistically significant correlation was found between coffee- and avocado-planted areas, which may have been driven by the FTA that promotes the export of Hass avocado to the USA.